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Affected by Sichuan power rationing and static management in Golmud, Qinghai, the price of lithium salt accelerated.
According to the data of Shanghai Steel Union, on August 22nd, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 3,500 yuan to 485,000 yuan, the biggest increase in a single day since March 4th this year, up by 7,500 yuan from last week.
Sichuan industry stopped production because of the policy of giving electricity to the people, which became one of the main drivers of lithium price increase. The capacity distribution of lithium industry chain in Sichuan Province is relatively concentrated, and the proportion of the whole country is at a relatively high level. Power cuts have led to different degrees of supply reduction.
On August 14th, the Sichuan Provincial Department of Economy and Information Technology and the State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company jointly issued a document requestingAll industrial power users (including white-listed key security enterprises) in the orderly power consumption scheme of Sichuan Power Grid will stop production completely (except security load).Give electricity to the people, as originally planned.The time is from August 15th to 20th.
According to the interface news, on August 20, the implementation time of this measure has been extended to August 25, with a total time of 11 days.
According to the data of Ping An Securities, the resources of lithium ore, the capacity of lithium salt, cathode material and anode material in Sichuan Province accounted for 57%, 27.4%, 11.8% and 17% respectively in China. It is estimated that the power cut will reduce the domestic output of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide by about 1,120 tons and 1,690 tons respectively, accounting for 3% and 8% of the national output in July.
"Because the enterprises in Sichuan have received the power-off notice and implemented it before, the power-off time has been postponed to 25 days, and the overall market loss supply in August is expected to be around 6,400 tons." Qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst at Shanghai Ganglian New Energy Division, told the interface journalist.
The reduction range accounts for about 12.6% of domestic lithium salt production in July. In addition, the output of ternary materials is expected to decrease by 4,500 tons, and that of Ferrous lithium phosphate is expected to decrease by 5,200 tons.
According to the incomplete interface news, the listed companies with lithium salt projects in Sichuan mainly includeTianqi Lithium Industry (002466.SZ), Rongjie (002192.SZ), Chuanneng Power (000155.SZ), Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ), Yahua Group (002497.SZ),Tianhua Super Clean (300390.SZ）Wait.
In addition to the power restriction in Sichuan, the lithium salt market is also affected by the Golmud epidemic measures in Qinghai Province. On August 15-24, Golmud adopted a static nucleic acid system, and traffic control was implemented during regional nucleic acid detection. In principle, only entry and exit were allowed.
Huaxi Securities said that although this measure had little impact on lithium salt production in Qinghai, traffic control affected lithium salt transportation to a certain extent, which in turn affected the overall supply chain of lithium salt.
Qinghai province is also a major lithium salt province in China. Huaxi Securities pointed out that more than 80% of lithium resources in China occur in salt lakes, and the salt lake resources in Qinghai and Xizang account for more than 90% of the total lithium in salt lakes in China. At present, the salt lakes with mass production of salt lake resources in Qinghai include Lanke Lithium and Zangge Holdings (000408.SZ）Chaerhan Salt Lake, Dongtai Jinaier of Qinghai Lithium Resources Company, Xitai Jinaier of citic guoan and Hengxinrong, and Yiliping Salt Lake of Minmetals Salt Lake.
According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, from January to July this year, the monthly output of lithium carbonate in Qinghai was 5,108 tons, 5,237 tons, 6,098 tons, 6,098 tons, 7,081 tons, 8,127 tons and 9,098 tons respectively, with a total output of about 47,000 tons.
In the case that the output of the supply side has declined, the demand side has ushered in the procurement and stocking period.
Ping An Securities pointed out that,In late August, it entered the early stage of "Golden September, Silver 10" procurement and stocking, and the power cut event may lead to a decrease in the spot circulation of lithium salt in the short term, which will aggravate the supply shortage. However, in the long run, the reduction of lithium salt caused by this power cut only accounts for about 0.6% of domestic production capacity in 2022.
The agency said that the power cut will support the spot price in the short term. However, due to the short power cut and the limited synchronization of superimposed downstream production, the gap between supply and demand of lithium salt caused by the power cut-off and production suspension is generally limited.
On August 22nd, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Car Market Information Association, wrote in his personal WeChat official account that the current high price of lithium carbonate can’t actually reflect the real relationship between supply and demand, because most of the supply and demand sides implement long-term cooperative pricing, and only a small part of the transactions are made at high spot prices. There is a mismatch in the actual quantity of lithium ore supply, which leads to the shortage of supply in some time periods and pushes up the price of lithium.
Cui Dongshu believes that the trend of resource price increase is mainly due to sellers’ reluctance to sell, buyers’ hoarding, middlemen’s hoarding, etc., and the supply is rapidly tight, but it is misunderstood by the market as a possible problem at the supply end.
Cui Dongshu said, "With the effect of the Fed’s interest rate hike, the price of lithium will be roughly between 470,000 and 500,000 yuan/ton, and the probability of breaking through 500,000 yuan is not great."
Huaxi Securities said that,Enter three、In the fourth quarter, the output of Qinghai Salt Lake in China decreased due to the weather, and downstream manufacturers all had the will to catch up with the work, and the demand or sustained release. The supply and demand structure of lithium salt in China will be further tense, and the price of lithium salt is expected to maintain the current upward trend, which is not excluded.todayFourth quarter of 2008orThe first quarter of 2023ofIn the peak season, the price of lithium salt reached a new high.
Wind data shows that as of the close of August 22nd, the lithium mine index rose by 6.21%, and all the 17 enterprises under the index rose, among which Shengxin Lithium Energy, Xizang Chengtou (600773.SH) and Tianqi Lithium Industry had daily limit, Tianhua Super Net rose by 13.57%, Rongjie, Yongxing Materials (002756.SZ) and China Mining Resources (0027).